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Blow for George Osborne as recession is deeper than first feared

The double-dip recession is deeper than originally feared as revised figures today showed a sharper decline in the economy in the final quarter of last year. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.4% between October and December, compared with a previous estimate of 0.3%, while the economy contracted by an unchanged 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The figures mean the current recession - defined as two or more quarters of declining GDP in a row - is more severe than first thought. The impact of the weak economy was underlined by household spending figures, which showed expenditure falling by 0.1% compared with a previous estimate of 0.1% growth. The downward revision will heap more pressure on the Government and fuel criticism that Chancellor George Osborne's austerity measures are choking off the recovery. And in a further sign that the Chancellor's deficit-busting plans are struggling, Government spending grew at its fastest rate in nearly seven years between January and March, the ONS said. The 1.9% surge in Government expenditure was driven by higher spending on public administration, health and defence. Meanwhile, the decline in household expenditure in the first quarter was driven by a fall in spending on financial services and social protection. The decreases were partially offset by spending on food and drink and recreation and culture. The construction sector declined by a larger than previously estimated 4.9%, its worst performance since the first quarter of 2009. Industrial production sector output, which includes manufacturing, was also revised downwards to a fall of 0.5% from a 0.4% decline. Despite the overall decline in GDP, growth in the powerhouse service sector, which makes up 75% of the economy, was revised upwards from 0.1% to 0.2% in the first quarter. Economists and business leaders have warned that a technical recession will hit confidence and could cause businesses to rein in spending at a time when they are being encouraged to invest to stimulate growth. But the current downturn is expected to be nothing like as severe as the previous recession of 2008/09, which spanned more than a year. Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the economy is likely to remain in recession in the second quarter, shrinking 0.5% across the whole of 2012. She said: "Given the negative impact of June's extra bank holiday, GDP is likely to have contracted again in the second quarter. "Indeed, there are still numerous factors likely to constrain the recovery going forward, not least tight credit conditions." Courtesy of London Evening Standard

Late payments left UK manufacturing firms £10.3bn out of pocket in 2011

Late payments left UK manufacturing firms £10.3bn out of pocket in 2011 according to direct debit organisation Bacs. The 2011 sum owing to manufacturers represents a significant rise on 2010 when £8.9bn was recorded as outstanding due to late payment. On average Bacs calculates that across manufacturers in expectation of late payments around £43,000 is outstanding for each company. In 2010 this figure was £38,00. According to a sector survey by Bacs, more than half of the UK’s manufacturing base experience late payments and 15% admit to being “very worried” about the consequences. An average of 29 days, in addition to the commonly expected 30 day payment period, are commonly added to payment periods according to Bacs. This leaves many firms waiting for two months before receiving payment for goods and services. Bacs says that the most frequent excuse businesses in the manufacturing sector give for late payment say they hear is that the hold-up is due to internal systems – 54% of those awaiting payment are told their invoice is waiting for authorisation. According to global trading organization GXS e-invoicing could solve many late payment woes. Nigel Taylor, head of e-invoicing at GXS explains: “Electronic invoicing is a key initiative to ensure invoices are paid on time. Automating the process allows for transparency and simplification, and the financial rewards of e-invoicing help to reduce processing costs from Eu17.60 to Eu6.70 – a 62% saving per invoice processed.” Mr Taylor continued: “Manufacturing companies may have work to do to remove a reputation of poor payers, in the UK at least. However, there is significant interest in the opportunity of electronic invoicing within industry groups like Odette and EDIFICE, which demonstrates that manufacturers are beginning to embrace the benefits of e-invoicing.” Mike Hutchinson, head of marketing at Bacs, says the issue of late payments is damaging to manufacturing firms which are relying on good cash flow to keep going through the fragile post-recession recovery period. “The problem of late payment is clearly getting worse for SMEs in the manufacturing sector,” he says. “We urge SMEs working in the manufacturing sector to look at what payments can be automated to help them assert more control over their cash flow, and hopefully alleviate some of that stress on the business and its owner,” Mr Hutchinson concluded. Published : 23 Feb 2012 9:36 am by Jane Gray Care of The Manufacturer

Mervyn: interest rates could go to 0% if crisis worsen

Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King has raised the prospect that the UK’s record-low 0.5 per cent interest rates could be cut yet further to support the ailing economy. “There is nothing in principle against cutting bank rate further if that turns out to be necessary” King told the Commons Treasury Committee. Such a move would cause further pain for savers and pensioners who are already being buffeted by low rates. The Governor also said he was “pessimistic” about the outlook for the eurozone. His economic warning came as official figures showed the Government’s deficit reduction strategy is being knocked badly off course by the double-dip recession. According to the Office for National Statistics, public sector net borrowing, excluding the costs of bailing out the banks, was £17.9bn in May, £3.9bn more than in the same month last year. The rise in borrowing was driven by a 7.3% slump in income tax receipts on the year, reflecting a rapidly weakening economy, and a 7.9% rise in government spending. The sharp deterioration came as an unpleasant surprise to City analysts who had expected public borrowing to fall to £14.8bn. Chancellor George Osborne has staked his political reputation on making deep cuts to Britain’s deficit by the end of the Parliament and has fiercely resisted calls for a “Plan B”, slowing the pace of cuts to support growth. But the Government’s target of reducing the total deficit to £92bn in the 2012-13 year is now in growing jeopardy. “Only two months into the fiscal year, it is evident that Mr Osborne is facing a major battle to meet his fiscal targets for 2012-13 and is in grave danger of losing it,” said Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight. Olann Kerrison, of foreign exchange specialists Moneycorp said: “Plan A, it would appear, is kaput. The spike in public sector borrowing is a body blow to the Chancellor and the Coalition’s handling of the economy.” City forecasters have already begun to raise their estimates of net borrowing over the present financial year. In a further blow for the Chancellor’s deficit reduction plan, the ONS revised its estimate of total public sector net borrowing in the 2011-12 financial year up from £124.4bn to £127.6bn. The ONS figures showed that Britain’s total public sector net debt rose to £1.013 trillion, equivalent to 65% of GDP. On Thursday the ONS is due to release its third estimate of GDP in the first quarter of the year and is expected to confirm that output fell by 0.3% over the three months, pushing Britain into its first double dip recession since the 1970s. Courtesy of London Evening Standard

UPDATE: Greece exit could cost $1 TRILLION - Cameron warns it's make or break for euro

PM says UK not immune if euro was to collapse

17 May 2012

David Cameron said today there would be no u-turn on Britain's austerity measures as the economic storm in Europe continued. In a major speech on Britain's economy, the Prime Minister issued a call for action from eurozone states and institutions to support weaker economies like Greece or see the single European currency break up. The Prime Minister said he would do "whatever it takes to keep Britain safe from the storm", but made clear that the UK could not be immune from the consequences of a collapse of the euro. He insisted he would not ditch the coalition Government's deficit-reduction strategy in the face of demands from Labour - echoed by new French president Francois Hollande - for a shift in focus from austerity to growth. Britain should be "resolute" as it faces the potential storms from the eurozone, but also "confident" that it can get through to a brighter future if it stands firm and resists the "dangerous voices calling on us to retreat", he said. In his starkest warning yet of the dangers created by the debt crisis in Greece, the Prime Minister used a high-profile speech on the economy to say that Britain is going through "perilous economic times". Citing Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King, who yesterday warned that the eurozone seemed to be "tearing itself apart", Mr Cameron told an audience of business leaders in Manchester: "Turn on the TV news and you see the return of a crisis that never really went away. Greece on the brink; the survival of the euro in question. "Faced with this, I have a clear task: to keep Britain safe. Not to take the easy course, but the right course. Not to dodge responsibility for dealing with a debt crisis, but to lead our country through this to better times. "My message today is that it can be done. We are well on the way in this journey." In a message directed at Germany - which yesterday registered strong growth while other eurozone countries saw their economies shrink - Mr Cameron said the "remorseless logic" of monetary union meant that successful economies must be prepared to do more to shore up weaker states on the periphery. While high-deficit countries like Greece need to take steps to get their budgets in order, "it is becoming increasingly clear that they are less likely to be able to sustain that necessary adjustment economically or politically unless the core of the eurozone, including through the European Central Bank, does more to support demand and share the burden of adjustment", he said. The eurozone needs to put in place long-term governance arrangements - such as eurobonds - which will deliver collective support and put an end to speculation about the future of the single currency. And Europe needs to implement structural reforms to address its overall low productivity and lack of economic dynamism, he said. "The eurozone is at a crossroads," said Mr Cameron. "It either has to make-up or it is looking at a potential break-up. "Either Europe has a committed, stable, successful eurozone with an effective firewall, well capitalised and regulated banks, a system of fiscal burden sharing, and supportive monetary policy across the eurozone, or we are in uncharted territory which carries huge risks for everybody. "As I have consistently said, it is in Britain's interest for the eurozone to sort out its problems. "But be in no doubt: whichever path is chosen, I am prepared to do whatever is necessary to protect this country and secure our economy and financial system." Despite the market turmoil across Europe sparked by the failure to agree a new government in Greece, Mr Cameron insisted there was reason for optimism that the UK is on the path of recovery. He hailed today's announcement of a £125 million investment by General Motors in its Vauxhall plant in Ellesmere Port, which he said was part of a wider revival in the British car industry which had seen the balance of trade in cars turn positive for the first time since 1976. "Despite headwinds from the eurozone, we are on track," said Mr Cameron. "It is a long-term project. It is painstaking work. But the tough decisions we have taken on deficit reduction really are beginning to yield real results. And there can be no deviation from this." He dismissed Labour's call for a relaxation in the Government's austerity programme in order to stimulate growth as "a cop-out", which would drive up interest rates and put recovery at risk. "Deficit reduction and growth are not alternatives. Delivering the first is vital in securing the second," he said. And he insisted: "We are moving in the right direction - not rushing the task, but judging it carefully. And that is why we must resist dangerous voices calling on us to retreat. "Yes, we are doing everything we can to return this country to strong, stable economic growth. But no, we will not do that by returning to the something-for-nothing economics that got us into this mess. "We cannot blow the budget on more spending and more debt. It would squander all the progress we've made in these last two, tough years. "It would mean tough decisions lasting even longer. It would risk our future. It's not an alternative policy, it's a cop-out." Britain's "responsible fiscal policy" of cutting spending and increasing taxes allowed the Bank of England to pursue an active monetary policy to support the wider economy, said Mr Cameron. And he said the Government was also pursuing a "radical programme of micro-economic reform" to boost competitiveness, including low corporate taxes, loan guarantees, streamlined planning rules, enterprise zones, labour market reforms and support for apprenticeships, as well as long-term action to invest in infrastructure, reform welfare and improve schools. "As we get through crisis, I believe we can look ahead with confidence," said the Prime Minister. "I cannot predict how this crisis will end for others. And I cannot pretend that Britain will be immune from the consequences, either. But this I can promise: that we know what needs to be done and we are doing it. "Get the deficit under control, get the foundations for recovery in place, defend the long-term interests of our country and hold our course. "As Prime Minister, I will do whatever it takes to keep Britain safe from the storm." Courtesy of London Evening Standard